Welcome to Murphy economics
"This web-site provides information on my current work analysing tax policy and the macroeconomy using economy-wide models. During my career,
I have directed economic modelling activities at the Australian Treasury, the Office of EPAC, Access Economics, Econtech, KPMG and Independent
Economics. I've now stepped down from directing modelling teams to divide my time between model-based research as a Visiting Fellow at the ANU
and allied consulting services for government agencies. My biography provides
further background."
Chris Murphy
Main New Contributions
I analyse economic issues using economy-wide models that I develop, including both macro-econometric models and
computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. I use these models in academic research for publication as well as
in consulting work for government agencies. Using my latest Australian macro-econometric model, in 2021 I was the first forecaster to foresee
the outbreak of inflation in Australia in 2022. I followed this with a detailed, widely-quoted analysis of Fiscal
Policy in the COVID-19 era. I have also used this model to estimate the potential gains from economic reforms in a
study for the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) and to generate economic scenarios for the
Parliamentary Budget Office. After developing the original Murphy models of Australia,
in 1998-99 I developed the Monetary Model of Singapore (MMS) for the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).
MMS continues today as the flagship model of the MAS, with my ongoing support. In 2016-17
I undertook a review of economic modelling at the Australian Treasury. In 2019-21 I advised The Treasury
on the development of their new macro-econometric model, known as EMMA. Tax reform is
analysed using the CGETAX model, which is designed for assessing the efficiency and incidence of the major Australian taxes. For example, the
Treasury commissioned me to model the effects of the proposed cut in the company tax rate from 30 to 25 per cent. A new
dynamic model of tax reform is under development. In 2022-23 I undertook a review of revenue forecasting for the NSW Treasury. I've also undertaken
research into fiscal equalisation. This web-site provides more information on my models as
well as the latest news on their use.
